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Trump’s Massive Spending Bill Moves Forward — But Here’s Why It Might Still Collapse

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” just passed a key House committee vote, pushing forward sweeping tax cuts, defense boosts, and welfare reforms. But internal GOP tensions, a $2.7 trillion deficit hike, and looming midterms threaten its future. Will the bill survive the House and Senate showdown, or collapse under party pressure? Dive in for a breakdown of what’s inside the bill and who’s fighting for — and against — it.

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President Donald Trump’s sweeping spending and tax reform bill, dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” just took a major step forward in Washington, clearing the House Budget Committee in a narrow vote. But don’t pop the champagne yet — the bill still faces fierce opposition, especially from within Trump’s own party. And if you’ve been around American politics for a while, you know that a win in committee ain’t a win in Congress.

Trump’s Massive Spending Bill Moves Forward — But Here's Why It Might Still Collapse
Trump’s Massive Spending Bill Moves Forward

This article breaks down what the bill is all about, what it means for everyday Americans, and why it could still go down in flames before reaching President Trump’s desk. We’ll also walk you through the politics, policies, and people involved, so whether you’re a curious voter or a policy pro, you’ll get the full picture.

Trump’s Massive Spending Bill Moves Forward

DetailInformation
Bill Name“One Big Beautiful Bill”
StatusPassed House Budget Committee (17-16)
Main FeaturesTax cuts, increased defense/border funding, Medicaid work requirements
Estimated Deficit Impact+$2.7 trillion over 10 years
Points of ContentionInternal GOP splits, SALT cap, Medicaid cuts
Next StepFull House vote (target: before Memorial Day)

Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” might’ve cleared its first big hurdle, but the political minefield ahead is filled with tripwires. Between hardline conservatives demanding more cuts, moderates fighting for local deductions, and the looming 2026 midterms, the bill’s fate is hanging by a thread.

If it survives, it could reshape the American tax code and welfare system for a decade. If it fails? Well, we’re back to square one — with a bigger deficit and more political bruises.

What’s Actually in Trump’s Spending Bill?

Let’s start with the meat and potatoes.

The bill is a comprehensive tax-and-spend proposal that builds on the 2017 Trump tax cuts, but with a lot more sizzle this time around. Here’s what it packs:

Top Provisions

  • Permanently extends 2017 tax cuts for individuals and businesses
  • New tax exemptions for:
    • Tipped wages
    • Overtime pay
    • Auto loan interest
  • Massive spending boost for:
    • Border security
    • Military modernization
  • Medicaid work requirements to kick in by 2029
  • Cuts to green energy subsidies and SNAP (food assistance) to offset tax losses

If you’re a small business owner, or you make most of your income through tips or gig work, this bill might sound like a dream. But dreams come with costs — and that’s where the fight begins.

Why the Bill May Still Collapse

It’s not the Democrats blocking this one. It’s Trump’s own Republican allies — especially the hardline conservatives who think this bill doesn’t go far enough or goes too far in the wrong places. Here’s a breakdown of the roadblocks:

1. Intra-Party Drama

This is where things get spicy. Members of the House Freedom Caucus, like Rep. Chip Roy (R-TX), say the bill is full of “window dressing” and not real reform. They want:

  • Immediate, deeper spending cuts
  • Tighter work rules for welfare recipients
  • A rollback of climate change programs — not just a trim

Some members only let the bill pass committee by voting “present” instead of “yes.” That’s like saying, “Fine, go ahead — but I ain’t endorsing this mess.”

2. Ballooning the Deficit

The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget — a nonpartisan watchdog — estimates the bill will:

“Add nearly $2.7 trillion to the federal deficit over the next decade.”

That’s because the $4 trillion in tax cuts aren’t matched by equivalent spending cuts — only $1.6 trillion in reductions are baked in.

When Uncle Sam already owes $36 trillion, this makes budget hawks real nervous.

3. SALT Wars (State and Local Tax Deduction)

Moderate Republicans from high-tax states like New York and California are threatening to vote “no” unless the SALT deduction cap is raised even higher.

  • Current cap: $10,000
  • Trump’s proposal: $30,000
  • NY/CA GOP Reps want: $60,000–$70,000

Without this tweak, they say it’s a non-starter. That’s a big ask and could tilt the bill off balance.

4. Political Optics Before Midterms

Some Republicans are whispering behind closed doors:

“Do we really want to cut Medicaid and food stamps going into an election year?”

Even Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO), a Trump loyalist, says slashing social programs could hurt working-class voters — the very people who fueled Trump’s comeback.

What Happens Next?

Speaker Mike Johnson says he wants a full House vote before Memorial Day, which means they’ve got less than two weeks to whip up enough “yes” votes to get this thing through.

Even if it passes the House, the Senate is a whole other beast. Republicans don’t have a filibuster-proof majority, so the bill needs to go through budget reconciliation — a tricky process with strict rules.

Who Wins and Who Loses If It Passes?

Winners

  • Small businesses: More deductions and less red tape
  • Gig workers: Keep more of their money from tips and OT
  • Defense contractors: Major boost in federal contracts
  • Border agents: Increased funding for personnel and tech

Losers

  • Green energy startups: Loss of subsidies and grants
  • Medicaid recipients: Work rules could drop enrollment
  • Low-income families: Reduced SNAP benefits = tighter belts

A Peek at the Numbers

CategoryAmount
Tax Cuts$4.0 trillion
Spending Cuts$1.6 trillion
Defense + Border Increases$650 billion
Green Energy Reductions$150 billion
Medicaid Adjustments$320 billion
Net Deficit Impact (10 years)+$2.7 trillion

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1. What is the “One Big Beautiful Bill”?

It’s a comprehensive tax and spending bill proposed by Donald Trump’s allies, designed to extend his earlier tax cuts, boost defense and border security, and implement new work requirements for welfare programs.

Q2. Will this bill raise taxes for anyone?

No. In fact, it lowers taxes for many — especially tipped workers, gig workers, and auto owners. But some deductions (like SALT) might not be high enough for everyone.

Q3. How does this affect my Medicaid or SNAP benefits?

If the bill becomes law, Medicaid work requirements would begin in 2029. SNAP (food stamp) funding would also be reduced, potentially shrinking access.

Q4. Will the bill reduce the federal deficit?

Not at all. Analysts say it will add $2.7 trillion to the deficit unless offset by more aggressive cuts or new revenue sources.

Q5. Is there any bipartisan support for this bill?

Zero. Democrats have uniformly opposed it, calling it an attack on poor and middle-income families. The fight is within the GOP itself.

One Big Beautiful Bill
Author
Pankaj Bhatt
I'm a reporter at ALMFD focused on U.S. politics, social change, and the issues that matter to the next generation. I’m passionate about clear, credible journalism that helps readers cut through noise and stay truly informed. At ALMFD, I work to make every story fact-based, relevant, and empowering—because democracy thrives on truth.

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