Former President Donald Trump kicked off his infamous trade war with China in 2018, hoping to slap down unfair practices and bring jobs back home. At the time, it sounded like a bold “America First” move. Tariffs were tossed around like hotcakes, and Washington looked ready for a long-haul economic fistfight with Beijing. But fast-forward to 2025, and we’ve got a very different picture.
Today, many economists, farmers, business owners, and yes, even some Republican insiders, are saying the trade war didn’t just stall—it flat-out collapsed. And now, there’s buzz about what Trump might be trying to cover up as he eyes another shot at the White House.
How Trump Trade War Fell Apart
| Topic | Details |
|---|---|
| Launch of Trade War | Initiated in 2018 with tariffs on Chinese imports worth hundreds of billions |
| Stated Goal | Reduce U.S. trade deficit, bring jobs back, pressure China on IP theft |
| Actual Outcome | Trade deficit persisted, job losses mounted, consumer prices surged |
| Job Losses | Around 245,000 U.S. jobs lost as a result of tariffs |
| Phase One Deal | China fulfilled only ~63% of purchase commitments |
| Current Tariff Status | Many tariffs quietly rolled back to 30–50% range (from highs of 145%) |
| Trump’s Public Stance Now | Downplaying the rollback, touting early wins |
| Legal Challenges | Lawsuits filed over constitutionality of executive tariff authority |
| Official Source | USTR.gov – United States Trade Representative Website |
Trump’s trade war was supposed to rewrite the rulebook on global commerce. But instead of a home run, it turned out to be a swing and a miss. The deficit grew, jobs were lost, China held its ground, and U.S. families got stuck with the bill.
How It All Began: The ‘America First’ Buzz
Let’s rewind the tape. In 2018, Trump rolled out massive tariffs targeting hundreds of billions worth of Chinese goods. From steel to solar panels, the message was clear: “We’re takin’ our jobs back, and we ain’t playing nice anymore.” It was supposed to push China to the negotiation table, end IP theft, and fix what Trump called the “worst trade deals in history.”
But here’s the kicker: it didn’t go down like that.
By 2020, not only were Americans paying more for basics like washing machines, electronics, and even groceries—but China didn’t back down either. In fact, they hit back with tariffs of their own, targeting American farmers and auto-makers. That tit-for-tat hurt folks across red and blue states alike.
Tariffs Took a Bigger Toll Than Expected
Despite the tough talk, the economic results weren’t in Trump’s favor. According to a study from the U.S.-China Business Council, about 245,000 American jobs were lost due to the tariffs. Industries that relied on international supply chains—like construction, retail, and manufacturing—were hit with rising costs and limited resources.
Here’s how it broke down:
- Farmers saw export demand dry up, especially for soybeans.
- Small businesses couldn’t compete with the rising costs of goods.
- Consumers ended up paying the price—with inflation rising as tariffs drove up import prices.
The Trade Deficit Still Grew—Not Shrunk
One of Trump’s biggest talking points? Fixing the U.S. trade deficit. The idea was: if we tax Chinese goods, they’ll stop selling so much to us, and we’ll make more stuff ourselves.
But surprise, surprise—the numbers tell a different story.
In 2022, the U.S. trade deficit with China actually hit a record high of over $382 billion, even with the tariffs in place. It turns out, when you mess with global supply chains, companies don’t magically relocate to Ohio—they just shift to Vietnam, Mexico, or other cheap labor markets.
And China? They didn’t lose sleep over it. They found new buyers in Europe and Asia.
The Phase One Deal That Never Delivered
Remember the “Phase One” deal Trump announced with fanfare in January 2020? It promised that China would buy an extra $200 billion of U.S. goods over two years.
Spoiler alert: They never got close.
According to data from the Peterson Institute for International Economics, China only fulfilled around 63% of its commitments under that agreement. And there was zero enforcement when they didn’t deliver.
Yet Trump still goes around saying he made “the best trade deal ever.” Go figure.
What Trump Might Be Hiding Now
With campaign season heating up, Trump isn’t exactly shouting from the rooftops about the trade war anymore. In fact, there’s a growing pile of stuff he seems to be sweeping under the rug.
1. Quiet Tariff Rollbacks
Reports suggest that tariffs on many Chinese goods have been quietly lowered—from as high as 145% down to the 30–50% range. That’s a big climbdown from the “maximum pressure” strategy he touted.
Why the silence? Likely because admitting defeat would tarnish his brand as a tough negotiator.
2. Legal Challenges in the Rearview
There’ve been a slew of lawsuits questioning whether Trump even had the legal power to impose some of these tariffs without Congress. Cases like V.O.S. Selections Inc. v. Trump are still floating in the background.
If rulings go against him, it could set a precedent that limits presidential authority on trade—a detail Trump would rather not headline.
3. Bipartisan Pushback
Even conservative allies like Mike Pence have called the tariffs “unsustainable.” Business leaders across the political spectrum have voiced frustration. But Trump’s campaign rhetoric rarely includes that bit.
4. Impact on Inflation and American Families
Let’s be real. Tariffs didn’t just hit foreign exporters—they boomeranged back to Main Street. Everything from refrigerators to footwear got pricier. A study from the Tax Foundation estimates the tariffs acted like a $57 billion tax increase on American consumers.
And in today’s economy—where every dollar counts—that ain’t good politics.
Where Do We Go From Here?
Biden has kept some of the tariffs in place but has moved toward stabilization and strategic diplomacy. His administration is focusing on supply chain resilience, domestic manufacturing incentives (think CHIPS Act), and strengthening ties with allies to counterbalance China—without going full-on trade war.
Meanwhile, Trump is doubling down on the “I alone can fix it” vibe. But without new answers or updated strategies, that’s starting to sound like a broken record.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Q1: Did the trade war achieve any of its goals?
A: Not really. The trade deficit persisted, job losses occurred, and China didn’t follow through on its purchase promises.
Q2: Why were tariffs such a big deal?
A: Tariffs are like taxes on imports. They raise prices for businesses and consumers while trying to discourage foreign competition. In this case, they backfired economically.
Q3: Is the trade war officially over?
A: There’s no formal “end,” but many tariffs have been reduced or phased out, and both countries are taking a less aggressive approach today.
Q4: How did the trade war affect regular Americans?
A: Prices rose, jobs were lost in export-heavy industries, and supply chain issues worsened. Small businesses and farmers were hit hardest.
Q5: Could a second Trump term bring back the trade war?
A: It’s possible. Trump has hinted at renewed tariffs and tougher stances on trade, especially with China, if re-elected.
