Donald Trump’s approval rating just did something it hasn’t done in months—it flipped. According to recent polling, Trump’s job approval has climbed to around 45%, up a point or two in just the last week. For a former president known for upending the political playbook, this shift is more than just numbers. It’s a signal—of voter movement, political calculation, and the potency of issue-driven momentum.
Donald Trump’s Approval Rating Just Flipped
| What’s Happening | Stat |
|---|---|
| Approval rising | 45.2% overall approval rating |
| Immigration shift | Net +1% approval (from –21% in 2017) |
| Youth gains | 41% approval among 30–44-year-olds |
Trump’s recent approval surge is real—but narrowly tied to specific issues, especially immigration and foreign policy. It’s a temporary opening, not a new baseline. Republicans see a chance; Democrats likely see urgency. Ultimately, whether this “flip” sticks depends on how the next few months unfold—commercial pressures, global events, and campaign strategies will all play a role.
Immigration: The Leading Edge
One of the biggest contributors to Trump’s approval bump is, ironically, an issue that once dragged his numbers down—immigration. With the deployment of National Guard troops to Los Angeles and a sharp tone on border policy, Trump appears to have tapped into a rising current of public concern.
CNN’s Harry Enten noted that Trump’s net approval on immigration is now +1%—a remarkable swing from his –21% rating on the same issue in 2017. The change is especially pronounced among Latino and working-class voters, where issue-based support appears to be outpacing party loyalty. “Immigration is now a winning issue for Trump,” Enten said. “That’s a big reversal from previous years.”
Youth Vote Is Shifting, Too
In a surprising turn, younger voters—long considered a Democratic stronghold—are warming up to Trump. Approval among voters aged 30 to 44 has jumped to 41%, according to a recent Newsweek report. Even the 18–29 group, once staunchly anti-Trump, has shown signs of softening with a 6-point gain in some national polls.
This matters. Not only did these demographics help fuel Trump’s 2024 comeback, but they also represent a key battleground for both parties going forward.
Policy Wins and Perceived Strength
The I&I/TIPP poll, one of the more accurate trackers of public opinion in recent elections, puts Trump’s approval at 44%, with disapproval at 52%—a 5-point narrowing from just a month earlier. Much of this appears to stem from high-profile policy moves, especially around immigration, tariffs, and national security.
Trump’s net approval among independents remains low—just 33.9%—but the general trend is upward. Support is particularly sticky in suburban and rural areas, where perceptions of Trump as “decisive” or “strong” often carry more weight than policy nuance.
A Rally‑’Round‑the‑Flag Moment?
Trump’s recent drone strikes on Iranian infrastructure also appear to have played a role. While the effects were not as dramatic as previous military actions, they did coincide with modest bumps in his approval, particularly among veterans and national security voters.
Political scientists call this the “rally‑’round‑the‑flag” effect—short-term approval surges following displays of leadership during crises.
Not All Sunshine for Team Trump
Despite the uptick, Trump’s support remains fragile. Economic approval is still underwater—only 39% of Americans back his handling of the economy, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll.
Independents and moderate suburbanites are skeptical, and many remain undecided ahead of the 2026 midterms. If inflation or unemployment ticks up, it could erode the very support Trump is now gaining. As someone who’s covered both the 2016 and 2024 elections up close, I’ve seen how quickly these surges can fade if not backed by broader policy credibility.
What Comes Next?
The short answer is maybe. If his campaign can convert issue-specific approval—on immigration, on foreign policy—into durable electoral support, it could help reshape the political map heading into 2026. But if the economy stumbles or public sentiment shifts, these gains could vanish just as quickly.
For Democrats, the warning is clear. As Vox reported, dissatisfaction among young and minority voters isn’t translating into support for their party—it’s turning into apathy. That’s a vacuum Trump knows how to fill.
