President Donald Trump’s job approval rating has plummeted to just 38%, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll. It’s his lowest mark in recent months and comes at a pivotal moment heading into the 2025 campaign season. So what’s driving this sharp decline—and what could it mean for his political future?
Trump’s Approval Crashes to 38%
| Takeaway | Stat |
|---|---|
| Trump’s overall approval rating is just 38% | Down from 41% in April |
| Only 40% approve of his handling of the economy | 54% disapprove |
| Just 43% support his immigration policies | Down 5 points from April |
| 60% of Americans say his military parade plan is a bad use of funds | Only 40% approve |
Trump’s approval slump isn’t just a bump in the road—it’s a flashing red light. With slipping numbers on immigration, the economy, and international trust, his political future looks more vulnerable than ever. Unless there’s a course correction, 2025 could be the biggest test yet for his brand of leadership.
What’s Dragging Trump Down?
Immigration Fatigue
Immigration used to be Trump’s political bread and butter. But support is slipping, even among independents. Only 43% of respondents back his policies on the border—down 5 points since April. Many view the policies as too aggressive or ineffective.
“Voters may still want border control, but they’re not buying the chaos anymore,” said one GOP strategist privately.
Economic Discontent
Despite low unemployment and solid GDP growth, Trump isn’t getting credit for the economy. Just 40% of Americans approve of his economic performance, with 54% saying he’s doing a poor job. Inflation concerns and uncertainty over tariffs may be souring opinions.
As someone who’s followed economic polling for years, I’ve rarely seen such a mismatch between macro indicators and public perception. That disconnect is politically dangerous.
Parade Problems
Trump’s push for a military parade—costing taxpayers between $25 million and $45 million—has flopped with the public. A full 60% say it’s a bad idea. Critics argue it’s a vanity project during tight budget times.
“It’s tone-deaf,” said a senior Democratic aide. “Americans are worried about gas prices, not tanks on the Mall.”
America’s Reputation Abroad
A Pew Research survey spanning 24 countries shows just 34% of foreign respondents trust Trump’s leadership. Many described him as “arrogant” and “dangerous,” highlighting a reputational drop that could impact global cooperation.
What This Means for 2025
Voter Realignment
Lower ratings on key issues could shift undecided voters. That’s especially true in battleground states where independents are crucial.
GOP Panic?
Behind the scenes, some Republican operatives worry Trump’s numbers could hurt down-ballot races. If his approval stays this low, 2025 could be a bloodbath for the party.
Possible Pivot?
Insiders say the campaign might recalibrate its messaging. More policy. Less spectacle. But whether Trump can resist his instinct for showmanship remains to be seen.
